|Year : 2020 | Volume
| Issue : 5 | Page : 96-98
Outcome of COVID-19: A trend analysis
Kavitha Chandu, Madhavaprasad Dasari
Department of Electronics and Physics, GITAM Institute of Science, GITAM Deemed to be University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India
|Date of Submission||30-Apr-2020|
|Date of Acceptance||18-May-2020|
|Date of Web Publication||13-Aug-2020|
Dr. Madhavaprasad Dasari
Department of Electronics and Physics, GITAM Institute of Science, GITAM Deemed to be University, Visakhapatnam - 530 045, Andhra Pradesh
Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None
COVID-19 though originated in China traversed divergently both in magnitude and time line. Outcome is an important indicator of its impact. It is measured in terms of recovery and death rates out of closed cases affected by COVID virus. The study attempts to analyze trends in the outcome of COVID-19. Six countries from Asia, Europe, and North America were selected for the analysis. The study infers that the outcome trend out of closed cases of COVID-19 varied across countries. The recovery rate is higher in Asian countries, while death rate is more in European and North American countries. The panacea for overcoming COVID-19 lies in finding therapeutic solution.
Keywords: Asia, COVID-19, Europe, North America
|How to cite this article:|
Chandu K, Dasari M. Outcome of COVID-19: A trend analysis. Biomed Biotechnol Res J 2020;4, Suppl S1:96-8
| Introduction|| |
The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International committee on Taxonomy of viruses named the current outbreak of virus which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome as “Novel Corona Virus,” in short COVID-19. It was first noticed in the Wuhan city of China. The authorities of China identified cases of pneumonia on December 29, 2019, which were later identified with this novel coronavirus. By the end of January, many countries reported the spread of coronavirus. The WHO declared it as a pandemic as it spread globally by March 2020. The outbreak of COVID -19 started at different times in different countries and now they are at different stages.,, The trajectory of COVID-19 has not followed a specific trend by country even though a downward/flattening trend appears to be a possibility depending on the starting phase. However, conclusive inference can only be drawn on examining the recovered and death rates, which are measured out of closed cases. The death and recovery rates vary depending on sex, age, and number of older population in a country. It may also vary by location. Generally, young children are prone to infectious diseases, but for COVID-19, it seems to be just opposite. The elderly people and people with underlying health conditions are at high risk of dying.
This article focuses on the outcome of COVID-19, i.e., recovery versus death rates out of closed cases between countries and globally. The death rates recorded vary from country to country. Some count deaths in hospitals and others include deaths at home also due to this pandemic. As the outbreak did not begin at the same time in all the countries, cross country comparison of speed of recovery and deaths can only be made with caution for a point of time. The trajectories of countries give the information about the percent of recovery and death due to this pandemic.
The data used in the present study were obtained from Data Repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.,, The JHU CSSE center is supported by the ESRI Living Atlas Team and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab. Population figures were taken from the United Nations' World Population Prospects.,,,
| Results|| |
The outcome is positive if the percentage of recovery is more than the death percentage out of closed cases and vice versa. The number of deaths reported on a particular day need not reflect the actual deaths within 24 h due to various reasons such as delay in reporting. The death and recovered rates help in understanding the high risks associated with COVID-19. [Figure 1] depicts the outcome of cases globally for the period February 16, to April 22, 2020. The picture across countries is analyzed from [Figure 2], [Figure 3], [Figure 4], [Figure 5], [Figure 6], [Figure 7].
It may be observed from [Figure 2] that the outcome in case of China has been largely stable during the reference period. From the beginning, the recovery rate started raising slowly recording the corresponding death rate from 86% to 96% by March 17, only to witness a marginal fall of 2% in the recovery rate by April 22, 2020. In case of India, as shown in [Figure 3], the recovery rate is 100% with no reported deaths until March 11. The recovery rate fell from that day to 69% by March 26, with 31% death rate correspondingly.
Iran [Figure 4] started with 100% deaths until February 22, and witnessed a steep raise in the next 3 days and finally realized 92% recovery by March 8. From [Figure 5], it could be discerned that until February 28, the recovery is cent percent which steeply fell to 43% in just 5 days, thereafter reaching the lowest (28%) by March 11, with the corresponding death rates: recovered in the next 3 days to 46% with 54% death rate and fell again to 30% by March 23 only to recover to reach 64% by the end of the reference period.
Italy [Figure 6] started with 50% each in recovery and death rates on February 22, and in the next 3 days, the death rate jumped to 85% and declined to 26% by March 2. In case of Spain [Figure 7], the recovery is 100% with zero death rate until March 2. The death rate peaked to 50% by March 5, while the converse is true for recovery rate. The recovery jumped to 73% by March 14, and again fell to 59% on March 20, which recovered to reach 69% by the end of the period.
| Discussion|| |
Globally, it shows that the recovery peaked in the early March with the lowest death rate at the same time. The recovery rate started to decline while increasing the death rate until the early April. From then onward, both flattened with stable rates. It is now established that the outcome is 80% recovery, while the remaining die globally.
The picture with regard to China appears to be divergent across countries. The outcome in China is stable after about 80 days of reporting the first case in that country. The recovery rate of India started improving reaching to 87% by the end of the study period. It is yet to stabilize. The experience of Iran is different. It ultimately recorded 92% recovery by the end of the reference period. The reverse is the trend in the death rate. The outcome trend in case of the USA is totally different. The USA is yet to register a stable trend. The death rate registered a reverse trend during the period. Italy is still one of the most affected countries. It exhibits a different trend in the outcome of closed cases. Even though the recovery rate increased to reach to 69% by the end of the study period, it is yet to reach a stable trend in the outcome of closed cases. Spain shows a similar trend to the USA in the beginning. The recovery rate is still in the upward trend, with death rate showing a declining trend.
| Conclusion|| |
The present study analyzed the outcome of closed cases for the world and selected countries from Asia, Europe, and North America. Two inferences can be drawn from the study. First, the magnitude and trend in recovery and death rates out of closed cases varied across countries. Second, the recovery percentage is higher in case of Asian countries such as China, India, and Iran compared to Europe (Italy and Spain) and North America (USA). The converse is true in case of death rate out of closed cases. The higher recovery rate in Asia is attributed to weather conditions (hot and humid climate acting as deterrent to COVID-19), vaccination, and higher youth in the total population (COVID virus affecting old population). Even if the recovery rate increases further, it has a tendency to relapse as observed in China. The ultimate panacea is to find a therapeutic solution to eradicate/overcome COVID-19.
Financial support and sponsorship
Conflicts of interest
There are no conflicts of interest.
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Available from: OurWorldInData.org. [Last accessed on 2020 Apr 27].
[Figure 1], [Figure 2], [Figure 3], [Figure 4], [Figure 5], [Figure 6], [Figure 7]